MARIA - MISE À JOUR

À 14H00 HEURE NORMALE DE L'EST

Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 56.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Guadeloupe and a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British
and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches and Warnings will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 56.9 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the
Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser
Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg








Malheureusement la situation se complique un peu ce soir.

La dépression tropicale 15 a été classée en tempête tropicale en soirée et se nome désormais Maria. Son renforcement est prévu un peu plus rapide et elle pourrait passer en ouragan de Cat. I dans les prochaines heures. Elle arrive dans des eaux très chaudes (+ de 29°), une atmosphère humide et très peu de vents de cisaillement. Les ingrédient sont donc là pour un renforcement progressif. Le NHC prévoit d'ailleurs un passage en Cat. II juste après le passage à proximité de la Guadeloupe.

Sa trajectoire est pour le moment confirmée par la plupart des modèles et le NHC sur la Guadeloupe ou à proximité immédiate. Ensuite elle est prévue pour longer le nord de l'arc par l'ouest pour finir par impacter les Îles Vierges et notamment Puerto Rico. Les îles du Nord pourraient être plus ou moins impactées selon la trajectoire finale, mais il faut être clair, quoi qu'il en soit, il y aura du vent (rafales à plus de 100 km/h) et de la pluie. Et compte tenu de la situation sur place ça pourrait être très difficile.

La Martinique est passée en vigilance jaune pour mer dangereuse, fortes pluies et orages et vents forts. La Guadeloupe est placée en vigilance jaune CYCLONIQUE. Les îles du nord devraient suivre rapidement.

Maria représente désormais un risque fort pour la Dominique, la Guadeloupe, Monserrat, Saint Kitts et Nevis, Saba et Saint Eustache et potentiellement pour les Îles du Nord. La Martinique devrait être impactée plus tôt mais de manière moins prononcée. Toutes ces îles doivent se préparer à des conditions d'ouragan.

Pour les îles française, il est IMPERATIF de suivre les consignes et les vigilance de vos préfectures respectives et de Météo France. Je rappelle que seuls ces organismes sont habilités à donner des consignes.

Vu les problèmes rencontrés sur les Îles du Nord, il important que les habitants de la Guadeloupe se préparent. Même si l'intensité devrait être bien moins forte, des dégâts importants sur les réseaux sont possibles. Donc, prévoir votre kit cyclonique (une base est ici : https://www.facebook.com/groups/meteo.tropicale/permalink/1267965703227515/ ).

Je referais un point demain matin, bien sûr.

Bonne soirée