EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018
We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
(as of 31 May 2018)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and Michael M. Bell2
In Memory of William M. Gray3
This discussion as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://tropical.colostate.edu
Anne Manning, Colorado State University media representative, is coordinating media inquiries into this forecast. She can be reached at 970-491-7099 or anne.manning@colostate.edu.
Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Email: philk@atmos.colostate.edu
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