FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018
We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased. With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
(as of 2 July 2018)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and Michael M. Bell2
In Memory of William M. Gray3
This discussion as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://tropical.colostate.edu
Anne Manning, Colorado State University media representative, is coordinating media inquiries into this forecast. She can be reached at 970-491-7099 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Email: email@example.com