Nouvelles des Navigateurs

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mercredi 5 octobre 2016

OURAGAN MATTHEW - Mise à jour mercredi 02h00






HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF MATTHEW NORTH
OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 74.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Guantanamo, Cuba, along
with reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
indicate that the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude
20.7 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the north
near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue overnight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
today, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew
will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected
to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches).



1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even
if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.4N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.7N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.3N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.0N 77.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.3N 80.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 33.2N 78.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

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