Nouvelles des Navigateurs

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mardi 29 septembre 2015

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE JOAQUIN

la dépression tropicale JOAQUIN, qui a pris le relais à 600 km à l'Est des Bahamas .

Parallèlement, deux ondes tropicales actives, l'une au milieu de l'Atlantique, se dirigeant vers Nord et l'autre dans le golfe du Mexique, menaçant la partie ouest de la Californie, se développent



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A decrease in
forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest are forecast by
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


VOICI CE QUE LA NOAA PRÉVOIT POUR LES DEUX ONDES TROPICALES

1. A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
about 100 miles west-northwest of Tampa, Florida, continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and portions of the southeastern United States.
Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent any significant
development of this system before it moves inland over the northern
Gulf coast later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, locally heavy
rains are likely over portions of the southeastern United States
during the next couple of days. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


2. A large area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic several
hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida. Some slow
development of this system is possible later this week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan


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