MÉTÉO - EDOUARD ET AUTRES activités dans l'Atlantique et le Gulf du Mexique

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.7W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.7W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.7N 45.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.7N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 49.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.







200 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located about a thousand miles west
of the Cape Verde Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association
with an area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast
of West Palm Beach, Florida. Strong upper-level winds and
interaction with the Florida peninsula will likely inhibit
development of this system today while it moves slowly west-
southwestward across the southern Florida peninsula. Once the low
moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico conditions could become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the
weekend while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. Regardless
of development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions
of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple
of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph. After that time, conditions over the central tropical Atlantic
are expected to be unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Brennan