JOAQUIN - mise à jour

HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
200 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be complete in the central Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Joaquin is
moving generally southwestward at about 6 mph (9 km/hr), and a
southwestward or westward motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected on
Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin
will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and
tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is now a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, with some
fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated from Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands through
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches
over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may
affect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic
today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of
Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing
significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding
likely. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.