Nouvelles des Navigateurs

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jeudi 1 octobre 2015

JOAQUIN - prévisions de la NOAA

HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...EYE OF JOAQUIN NEAR SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS...
...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 73.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES




DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the north
and an increase in forward speed on Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the
central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next
day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure just extrapolated by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the
southeastern Bahamas through tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas
in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the
hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches
over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

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