TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
...SANDY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.8N 77.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
Prévisions de la trajectoire selon la NOAA
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