OURAGAN RAPHAEL - mise à jour

HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
500 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012

...RAFAEL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 60.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED ON
THURSDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA
AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.