OURAGAN TOMAS

L'ouragan Tomas a épargné Grenade -

Ste-Lucie a subi des vents avec rafales de 70 noeuds (+ ou -) et de violents orages - les voiliers que nous connaissons sont tous OK; ils avaient eu le temps de se préparer et de se sécuriser.

Martinique : Vent jusqu'à 50 noeuds - là aussi les gens étaient préparés - ceux qui avaient eu la témérité de ne pas enlever leur bimini seront de bons clients pour les ateliers de canevas

Présentement l'ouragan prend de la force en se dirigeant dans la mer des Caraîbes vers l'ouest. Nous avons noté qu'il se déplace beaucoup plus lentement - 5 noeuds - et fera du "sur place" à la rencontre du front froid

Voici le dernier bulletin de ce matin :

HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0900 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 62.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 25SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 45SE 45SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 62.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.4N 64.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 66.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.1N 68.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 85SE 85SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 70.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 85SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 95SE 105SW 135NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN