TEMPÊTE TROPICALE "TOMAS"

à 06h00 ce matin j'ai eu des nouvelles de NAMAR - Marcel et Nancy qui sont à GRENADE.

La tempête se dirige sur la Barbade et Grenade devrait s'en tirer avec des vents d'une quarantaine de noeuds.

000
WTNT21 KNHC 300240
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A HURRICANE
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 60SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.0N 60.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.2N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 67.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 65NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN